Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 35.660345 38.515527 41.645980 45.363288 49.698099 54.646119 60.800456
2025-08-31 31.302981 34.987306 39.287972 44.777602 51.753729 60.560202 72.950876
2025-09-07 29.332171 33.549719 38.690282 45.605385 54.994425 67.876892 88.150396
2025-09-14 27.380348 31.816185 37.388147 45.173073 56.285227 72.583442 100.850854
2025-09-21 25.574057 30.055164 35.808119 44.075559 56.339055 75.317725 111.113171
2025-09-28 24.079206 28.556918 34.408236 43.015605 56.208154 77.616999 121.310118
2025-10-05 23.742522 28.533168 34.958797 44.749207 60.538217 88.219750 153.170067
2025-10-12 23.182030 28.152783 34.960383 45.635928 63.612185 97.389907 188.448578
2025-10-19 22.595261 27.687349 34.787917 46.209765 66.214158 106.382037 231.954380
2025-10-26 21.956602 27.104260 34.390557 46.366071 68.069625 114.365766 282.692278
2025-11-02 21.158688 26.249645 33.529199 45.671978 68.213808 118.469629 324.974519
2025-11-09 20.325180 25.304135 32.474816 44.563031 67.397942 120.012835 358.779539
2025-11-16 19.585464 24.489657 31.616191 43.790866 67.306788 123.889116 420.145883
2025-11-23 18.941493 23.788944 30.897359 43.207943 67.545101 128.903871 511.260975
2025-11-30 18.660601 23.603358 30.959363 43.988291 70.773719 144.117898 812.070415
2025-12-07 18.142289 23.040375 30.391510 43.581977 71.334326 151.326196 1142.180234
2025-12-14 17.527879 22.309531 29.519384 42.550241 70.327253 152.815504 1425.580899
2025-12-21 16.958863 21.627431 28.695684 41.552707 69.281014 153.898781 1812.739764
2025-12-28 16.955028 21.796807 29.252672 43.183660 74.769976 183.827063 52657.509363
2026-01-04 16.791492 21.713281 29.387362 44.016773 78.494586 210.561033 NaN
2026-01-11 16.581504 21.548159 29.374721 44.555523 81.580935 238.218303 NaN
2026-01-18 16.314013 21.282533 29.177328 44.702218 83.634826 263.203604 NaN
2026-01-25 15.925637 20.814180 28.612840 44.050628 83.295968 272.538172 NaN